Some 10yr-3mo Spreads in October
France, Italy rise. UK rose through September. Figure 1: 10 year – 3 month government term spread, for Canada (red), France (light blue), Germany (orange), Italy (purple), UK (teal), all in %. Source: OECD. Historically, this term spread worked better as a predictor of recessions for Canada and Germany (as discussed in Chinn and Ferrara, […]
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