Russia is betting another year of European elections to outlast support for Ukraine, Kyiv analyst says

Ukrainian foreign-policy analyst Iuliia Osmolovska believes Russia has no urgency to reach a peace deal, as it can continue the war with its own resources and relies on a year of political change in Europe to diminish support for Ukraine. Osmolovska, who heads the Kyiv office of the GLOBSEC think tank, stated that Russia's approach to the US-brokered talks suggests they are being used as a way to wear down the clock rather than bring the war to an end.

Russia's strategy is working in its favor, as next year's political shifts in Europe could significantly reduce the political, diplomatic, and financial support Ukraine relies on. Russia anticipates continuing its attacks through another winter to assert its objectives on its own terms. Osmolovska argues that from Russia's strategic standpoint, time is working in their favor.

The invasion has resulted in a population decline of approximately 10 million in Ukraine, according to UN figures. Winter poses a significant threat to Ukraine, as Moscow seeks to devastate its energy system through its strikes. The analyst warns that winter is advantageous for Russia due to their vulnerabilities in Ukraine, including a lack of defense against ballistic missiles and the absence of ready solutions against jet-powered drones.

Russia has been intensifying its strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with one strike causing a crater the size of a house at a substation. The ultimate goal is to undermine NATO, as Russia has been advocating for broader talks on Europe's security architecture. This includes a renewed push to curb NATO's expansion and military presence near its borders.

Although 40 European countries rejected these demands in a declaration on November 12, Osmolovska interprets Russia's ultimate aim as the collapse of NATO itself. She believes Russia will employ hybrid attacks to weaken the Alliance until its decision-making becomes ineffective.