Global powers converge on Manila as ASEAN summit kicks off

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit commenced in Manila on Sunday, bringing together regional leaders to discuss trade, security, and an ongoing energy crisis. US President Donald Trump is to arrive on Tuesday, marking the start of a potential Quad meeting with India, Japan, and Australia – the first such encounter during Trump's second term.

The Quad group aims to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is scheduled to participate in a plenary session of the Asean, while Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will sign a new defense pact with the Philippines.

Police presence in Metro Manila has been significantly increased, with 20,000 officers deployed to ensure security during the summit. Anticipated protests against US President Trump's visit include a large march on Tuesday in support of the anti-Trump movement. The US's "Pax Silica" program, which aims to reduce China's dominance in semiconductors and rare earths, is facing opposition due to its proposed AI manufacturing hub in the Philippines, which may displace Indigenous communities. US Ambassador Lee Lipton denied rumors of a November deal signing date targeting Trump's visit.

Early meetings on Saturday included Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's announcement of a Philippine trade deal and discussions among Asean leaders regarding haze from Indonesia and potential fuel-sharing schemes to address energy shortages stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran. However, two key issues that have plagued Asean leaders for years – the South China Sea Code of Conduct and their relationship with Myanmar – are likely to remain unaddressed during the summit.

Myanmar, excluded from high-level Asean meetings since a 2021 military coup, is set to face an international ruling on alleged genocide against the Rohingya minority.

Negotiations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea between Asean states and China have been declared to be 80% complete, but the completion of the agreement remains uncertain. Beijing's ongoing territorial claims in the region have led to tensions, with clashes between Chinese and Philippine naval forces in recent months.

Philippine defense chief Gilberto Teodoro, sanctioned by China for his controversial remarks, is set to deliver a keynote speech at an adjacent seminar on China's South China Sea claims. As the summit opens, the annual event will also address the urgent need to challenge China's aggressive stance in the disputed waters.