Asean summit faces unity test amid energy crisis, conflicts

Southeast Asian foreign ministers convene in Manila this weekend, aiming to coordinate a response to rising energy prices, security tensions, and the upcoming El Niño phenomenon. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized the need for collective action, as the bloc faces multiple crises. The meetings, chaired by the Philippines, will run through November 17, with leaders set to discuss a broad range of issues at the Asean summit.

These include the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict, Myanmar's internal crisis, the South China Sea, and transboundary pollution. The summit also marks a gathering with major powers such as the US, China, and Japan.

The Philippine and other import-dependent Southeast Asian economies are grappling with higher fuel costs, which have squeezed households and businesses and increased inflation pressures. While a shared oil stockpile proposal remains under study, the crisis has highlighted the limits of regional energy security. US President Donald Trump, attending the summit, suggested he may not order new military strikes on Iran following appeals from countries like Qatar.

However, the threat of renewed military action and oil supply disruptions persists, causing concern among fuel-importing nations.

At the grassroots level, the impact of the conflict is evident. Jeepney driver Lito Albino, appealing to Trump for help, lamented that the Middle East conflict has forced him to work longer hours for less pay, with his family suffering from higher fuel expenses. The turmoil in Myanmar, sparked by a military coup in 2021, will also be a focal point for Asean leaders.

They are expected to assess the bloc's five-point consensus framework and its implementation, which will be reflected in a negotiated document. Meanwhile, the South China Sea negotiations are about 70% complete, though the extent of agreed text remains unclear. The summit's diplomatic meetings will also be met with protests from workers, students, and left-wing groups, who demand an end to the Middle East conflict and the scrapping of US-led Pax Silica.

Myanmar's involvement in the summit is expected to be contentious, with demands for the exclusion of coup leader Min Aung Hlaing from leadership meetings. Hlaing's military has received support from China, India, and Russia, leading to increasing international recognition for his administration while Asean countries reengage and US officials hold secret talks amid the Trump administration's policy shifts.