US Think Tank War Games Putin Death, Invasion Of NATO State By 2030

A prominent U.S.-based think tank, the RAND Corporation, has modeled a hypothetical scenario where Russia invades a NATO territory in Eastern Europe by 2030, following the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin in early 2027. The report, published by the European branch of RAND, suggests that Putin's death could trigger a series of events, including a wave of hybrid attacks aimed at NATO members. The timeline provided is not a prediction, but a possible pathway to examine potential threats to NATO in the near future.

Hybrid warfare tactics, such as cyberattacks, information campaigns, and targeting critical infrastructure, are expected to escalate in the coming months. Analysts predict Russia will increase such operations and may ultimately attempt to invade a NATO member state. However, a limited land grab on the Russian border is considered the worst-case scenario.

NATO members are bound by a collective defense pledge, which means that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. However, analysts warn that Russia may try to exploit divisions within the alliance by carrying out a limited military attack on an allied country. If NATO fails to respond overwhelmingly, it would be seen as a failure of the alliance's credibility.

The RAND scenario begins with Putin's death in early 2027, leaving a power vacuum at the Kremlin. A senior ex-security services member would emerge as Putin's successor and agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine to focus on domestic stability. However, the peace talks between the U.S. and Russia are expected to stall, causing the Ukraine war to freeze. Moscow would still control large parts of Ukraine, but intense fighting would cease.

The newly installed Russian leader would then try to rebuild the Russian military, which has swelled in size despite high battlefield casualties. Domestic malaise would rise due to the ongoing war and its impact on the Russian economy by January 2028. Russian factions would push for action against NATO, and under pressure to display dominance, the leader would greenlight increased hybrid attacks on Europe.

In the RAND imagining, European NATO countries are slow to react and fail to work together to combat Russian hybrid threats. Meanwhile, the U.S. is caught up in a major crisis in South America, limiting its ability to provide substantial support to NATO members. Russia plans to show that the NATO alliance is not secure anymore by launching a limited military attack on an allied country, such as Estonia. The objective is to weaken key targets like energy infrastructure and communication networks.

Caught off guard by NATO's response, Russia would then broaden the war to the Arctic and surrounding regions, using its advanced submarines to cut cables and communications while conducting aerial attacks on U.K. ports and air bases. The ultimate goal is to destabilize NATO and force the alliance to reconsider its commitment to collective defense.