‘Tsunami Melayu’ hampir pasti landa Melaka?

Tsunami Melayu, predicted to occur in Melaka, is anticipated to follow the same pattern as in Negeri Sembilan during the recent PRN. With a Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition securing two-thirds of the votes in the latter, analysts predict this duo will once again unite Malay voters, particularly in Melaka, where BN holds strong influence.

Following the 2021 PRN, only 13 out of 28 seats saw BN victories by a narrow margin. However, predicting such a tight outcome this time is considered challenging, regardless of whether it's a majority Malay constituency or a mixed one with many Malay voters. James Chin from the University of Tasmania stated that the President of PAS, Hadi Awang, will urge his supporters to vote for BN.

Before the candidate nominations on October 31, the PRN Melaka outcome remains difficult to forecast, despite BN opening up discussions with Pakatan Harapan (PH), even though they initially aimed to continue their collaboration with PN. This situation gives BN an edge in the alliance's discussions with PN, resulting in only five contested seats, while BN secures 23.

PAS President Ahmad Fadhli Shaari acknowledged this, admitting that overly aggressive stances during seat discussions may prompt BN to partner with PH. However, PN collaborations do not make BN's focus on Malay interests their sole campaign objective. BN does not allow more aggressive PAS leaders to attend campaign events, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, which reflects their effort to maintain a simple image to attract cross-ethnic support.

PH-Pasarisan cooperation seems irrelevant for now, as both parties have not clearly defined their goals since early in the campaign. This gives BN a clear advantage over PH-Pasarisan, which had a poor showing in 2020. PH and Pasarisan have been clashing in three seats, with PH and Pasarisan only sharing two seats. While PH-Bersatu has faced internal opposition, including from DAP Melaka's Khoo Poay Tiong, who repeatedly insists that PH needs to go solo.

This opposition highlights the lack of clear objectives and commitment to their partnership, unlike BN-PN, which appears more organized in their campaign message, even launching a joint manifesto. Throughout the campaign, DAP, the most influential party in PH in Melaka, has urged its main supporters to vote against BN-PN, while repeatedly warning about PAS's conservative agenda on religion.

However, DAP's massive rally did not attract as many people as before, and even the Chinese voters showed less enthusiasm. Despite winning five seats in Melaka in 2021, DAP aims to retain at least four contested seats, particularly the mixed Ayer Keroh constituency, which is considered a must-win. DAP's leader Mohamad Sabu claimed that the party can win all seven contested seats, but political observers doubt this achievement.

Of the five PH seats, Bukit Katil, held by the Deputy President of Amanah and former Melaka Menteri, Adly Zahari, is seen as the most risky, given that Malay voters make up 64.8% of the constituency's electorate. For PKR, which contested 10 seats, the party's failure to win any seats in 2021 will be a significant blow. Azman Abidin, Anwar Ibrahim's political secretary, lost in Paya Rumput, while Farzana Hayani Nasir lost in Kelebang.

Their losses might be interpreted as rejection of Anwar, who had previously urged voters to choose a candidate with a direct connection to him. PAS is perceived as weak among the five seats PH contested, with efforts to win over Malay voters to give PH an edge in several mixed seats. However, PAS's leadership, former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, is expected to struggle in capturing a significant victory. PAS is unlikely to have a major impact. Malay voters will continue to support BN-PN.