Trump admin aims to maintain Israel aid in coming years, despite US president’s claim otherwise

In recent years, right-wing populists across the globe have been experiencing electoral setbacks, with former Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary recently losing power after a 16-year tenure. This trend has even impacted the United States, where Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress under President Donald Trump. For Israel, these political setbacks carry significant implications.

Israel's security is not solely reliant on its military strength but also on its alliances, which amplify its defensive capabilities. With limited strategic depth and facing adversaries whose populations and resources far exceed its own, Israel depends heavily on American weapons, intelligence, emergency resupply, and diplomatic protection. The European Union also plays a crucial role by providing essential markets, accounting for nearly one-third of Israel's goods trade.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political strategy has involved nurturing nationalist leaders, but his recent approach has left Israel dangerously isolated. The Israel-Hamas War and shifting public opinion have damaged Israel's standing, and Netanyahu's gamble on Republican dominance in Washington and European nationalist parties has proven ineffective.

Now, he is advocating for Israel to become self-sufficient in weapons, similar to ancient Sparta, while acknowledging that geography, demography, and diplomatic isolation cannot be overcome through domestic military development alone.

Many European and American officials and opinion leaders express concern over the current Israeli government led by Netanyahu. Despite the presence of friendly relationships, few are willing to overlook the government's actions. If Netanyahu had won the recent election, the potential consequences could have been catastrophic, with the possibility of sanctions and weapons embargoes. The lack of clear communication about Israel's vulnerabilities during the election campaign is seen as a significant failure.

An alternative government led by Gadi Eisenkot may offer a glimmer of hope, but removing Netanyahu from power is just the first step. Doubts persist about whether Eisenkot will govern differently, particularly regarding Palestinian relations. While Eisenkot is aware of the dangers of drifting toward a binational, undemocratic state, the current situation may be unsustainable.

The 60-year arrangement of Israeli control over Palestinians, despite the lack of Palestinian representation, poses a significant contradiction for a democracy that relies on international cooperation.

As the situation evolves, financial restrictions could become an option for an increasingly isolated Israel. A future Democratic administration in the United States, backed by congressional majorities, could reassess relations with Israel and scrutinize various aspects of Israeli policies, including settlements and military assistance.

The European Commission has already proposed suspending trade concessions with Israel, and financial restrictions could extend to Israeli banks financing settlement activities, impacting various sectors of the Israeli economy.

In conclusion, Netanyahu's political gamble has had severe consequences for Israel's international standing and security. The country must now grapple with the possibility of isolation and the need for reassessment of its diplomatic and military alliances. The road ahead is uncertain, but the stakes could not be higher for Israel's future.