SpaceX Could Announce a Deal for Tesla as Soon as December. Here's What It Would Do to SpaceX Stock.

SpaceX and Tesla are reportedly in merger talks, with a potential deal expected as early as December or possibly early 2027, according to a Bloomberg report on November 12. The merger could see SpaceX taking over Tesla, with Tesla shareholders receiving SpaceX shares in exchange. SpaceX is valued at approximately $1.9 trillion, while Tesla is worth around $1.6 trillion, making this a significant deal.

If the deal were to occur at current valuations, it could nearly double SpaceX's share count, with shareholders owning a company primarily powered by Tesla's sales. SpaceX shareholders would likely own about 55% of the combined company, while Tesla investors could receive a 25% premium, leaving SpaceX with slightly less than half of the new entity.

Revenue-wise, Tesla's sales are around 66% of the combined total, with SpaceX's automotive revenue making up 48% of the total. The combined company would also see a significant drop in operating income, with SpaceX contributing around 20% of the combined profits. While the merger would create a much larger company, it could also result in slower growth compared to SpaceX's current trajectory.

A premium for Tesla shareholders could further complicate the deal for SpaceX investors. The success of the merger will depend on several factors, including the handling of Tesla's China business and the approval process from SpaceX's special committee, board, and controlling shareholder.