One Stat Suggests Jayson Tatum's Biggest Problem Won't Last

Jayson Tatum is having an impressive start to the 2021-22 NBA season with the Boston Celtics. His scoring is back to pre-injury levels, and he's leading the league in assists. Tatum's rebounding and defensive play are also at their usual high rate. However, his shooting efficiency has been a concern, with a field goal percentage of 41.3% and a three-point percentage of 30.6%. His effective field goal percentage, which factors in the greater value of three-pointers, is the lowest of his career.

Several factors could explain Tatum's shooting struggles. It's possible he's still adjusting after recovering from an Achilles injury. Additionally, it's early in the season, and he might be finding his rhythm. There could also be an impact from playing without Jaylen Brown, who was a key contributor to the Celtics' offense. Regardless of the cause, there's reason to believe Tatum's efficiency will improve as the season progresses.

To quantify Tatum's shooting struggles, the NBA introduced the shot difficulty statistic, which measures the expected field goal percentage for an average NBA player given the circumstances of each shot. Tatum's expected field goal percentage is 46.3%, while his actual shooting percentage is 41.3%, a five-point difference. This ranks him 103rd among 128 qualified players in this metric.

Despite his lower efficiency, Tatum's shot selection appears to be reasonable, as he's making fewer shots than an average player would be expected to given the difficulty of his attempts.

This shooting inefficiency doesn't appear to be due to poor shot selection, suggesting that Tatum's shooting will likely improve as he becomes more comfortable with the team. If that happens, Tatum will become an even more formidable player for the Celtics.