Oʻahu infrastructure threatened by tipping point in sea-level rise impacts
A new comprehensive study by researchers at the University of Hawaiʻi (UH) at Mānoa Climate Resilience Collaborative reveals that traditional sea-level rise models, which account only for rising ocean waters, drastically underestimate the true threat to coastal infrastructure on Oʻahu, Hawai'i.
A new study from the University of Hawaiʻi (UH) at Mānoa reveals traditional sea-level rise models significantly underestimate coastal threats on Oʻahu. Researchers incorporated shoreline erosion and high-wave events, finding these factors could affect up to two-thirds of land and 85–100% of critical infrastructure like buildings, roads, and sewage systems.
The study, published in Environmental Research: Climate, warns that current models overlook a critical tipping point between 2073 and 2102, depending on emissions, where infrastructure failure becomes widespread. Honolulu faces the greatest risk from wave-driven flooding, while the west side struggles with annual high-wave impacts.
The North Shore is most affected by coastal erosion. Roadways and wastewater infrastructure are particularly vulnerable, with certain sections becoming impassable or flooded at relatively low sea-level rise thresholds. The findings emphasize the urgent need for tailored adaptation strategies, including drainage retrofits and decentralized wastewater solutions.
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