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Kenya El Niño: How maize shortages and flood risks are driving inflation and business risks

Kenya’s 2026 El Niño season is exposing the economy to a double shock, with a 39 per cent decline in projected maize production, rising food prices and the threat of widespread flooding putting…

  • Kenya's 2026 maize production forecasted at 2.2 million metric tonnes, 39% below five-year average
  • 10.2% annual food inflation rate in October 2026, driven by agricultural disruption
  • 1.5 million people at risk of flooding, threatening business operations and household budgets

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