‘Malay tsunami’ in Melaka polls a foregone conclusion?

The Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance, which achieved a two-thirds majority in the Negeri Sembilan election on August 1st, is anticipated to secure a similar victory in today's Melaka state election. The alliance, comprising Umno and PAS, the two largest Malay-Muslim parties, has solidified Malay support, particularly in a state where BN already holds a strong position.

Analysts predict that the BN-PN pact will further solidify Malay votes, especially in Malay-majority and mixed seats with a larger Malay electorate. Sources indicate that the 2021 Melaka polls saw slim victories in 13 of the 28 seats, indicating that a similar outcome is unlikely this time.

James Chin, from the University of Tasmania, told FMT that the "Malay tsunami" is imminent, urging PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang to instruct supporters to vote for BN. Prior to the nomination day on October 31st, uncertainties persisted regarding the election's outcome as BN kept open the possibility of negotiations with Pakatan Harapan (PH), despite initially committing to continue its pact with PN.

PH, contesting 24 seats, has formed an electoral agreement with Bersatu, which will field seven candidates in three seats. However, the PH-Bersatu pact has faced internal opposition, with Melaka DAP chief Khoo Poay Tiong arguing for a solo campaign, citing Bersatu's role in the PH government's collapse in 2020.

PH's DAP has focused on urging its Chinese voters to vote against BN-PN, warning about PAS's conservative agenda, but its rallies have attracted fewer supporters. On the other hand, Amanah, led by Mohamad Sabu, claims it can win all seven contested seats but analysts believe this is improbable. PH's Bukit Katil, held by former Melaka Chief Minister Adly Zahari, is the most likely to shift to BN-PN due to Malay voter dominance.