India's Road Fuel Demand Won't Peak Until 2034

India's road fuel demand is projected to reach its peak around 2034, according to BloombergNEF's research. Even with the increasing popularity of electric two- and three-wheelers, commercial transport and conventional fleets will continue to consume significant amounts of gasoline and diesel. The country's rising road fuel demand could prop up global oil demand growth longer than China, where gasoline and diesel consumption has dropped due to higher oil prices and the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption.

However, Indian electric vehicle (EV) sales are lagging behind 2030 targets, with the country requiring approximately $29 billion in charging infrastructure investment by 2040 to accelerate EV adoption beyond two- and three-wheelers. BloombergNEF's India Transition Factbook 2026 revealed that while Indian EV sales are increasing, the nation is far from meeting most of its 2030 goals.

These targets include 80% of two- and three-wheeler sales being EVs, 70% of commercial vehicles being electric, and 30% of passenger vehicles being electric by the end of the decade. BNEF's modeling indicates that India will fall short of these objectives, with three-wheelers being the sole exception. Factors such as lower total cost of ownership, greater model availability, and sustained policy support are boosting Indian EV sales; however, three-wheelers are the only segment expected to meet the government targets.

The International Energy Agency's Global EV Outlook 2026 highlights that although India is the second-largest car market in the Asia Pacific region, its electric car sales are modest and have only recently begun to rise.