Has Europe reached peak right-wing populism?

Polls suggest Europe may have reached a peak in the popularity of far-right populism, with the extreme movements potentially entering a period of stagnation. Instead of reversing their standing, it is more likely this marks the end of the "first great political wave" of the far-right "insurgency." In the UK, the Conservatives have overtaken Reform, led by Nigel Farage, in recent opinion polls, potentially marking a turning point.

Reform's national standing has suffered from financial scandals and racism allegations, as well as Nigel Farage's inability to provide convincing responses. A recent poll found Labour at 28%, with the Conservatives five points ahead at 25%. The populist right has also suffered a significant blow after the Republicans' disastrous performance in the US midterms, which saw them lose ground.

Spain, currently governed by a left-wing minority, will hold elections later in the month, with the far-right Vox party seeking to enter government for the first time. Spain's leader, Santiago Abascal, has distanced himself from Donald Trump, stating he has no interest in the US or its political climate. The rise of populist parties across Europe is evident, with the Authoritarian Populism Index reporting that 32% of voters support populist, authoritarian, or extremist parties.

The repudiation of Trumpism in America has created challenges for Reform, as Farage closely aligned himself with Trump, which has damaged his reputation. Reform received £72 million from two donors, highlighting the fact that money alone does not guarantee electoral success. However, Reform's recent success in local elections and their focus on issues such as immigration and the economy may still attract voters.