Analyse: Avgift kan stenge oljefelt tidlig

The Norwegian government warned last year that high carbon prices resulting from the dual tool approach (CO2 tax and quota price) could lead to the closure of fields and infrastructure earlier than originally planned. The Department of Energy will launch an external assessment of how the dual tool approach may impact sustainable resource management and value creation, according to a budget proposal for 2026 from the Department of Energy.

The consequences of oil and gas companies having to pay a Norwegian CO2 tax in addition to EU quota credits through the EU's quota system are referred to as "double tool use". There is concern that this could contribute to fields being closed earlier than originally intended and a decrease in production on the continental shelf.

Wood Mackenzie has provided this analysis to the Department of Energy. The company estimates that Norway could potentially lose between 1.5 billion and 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent with increasing CO2 tax compared to the situation where the industry only paid for quota credits. According to the analysis, Norway could potentially lose between 1.5 billion and 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent with increasing CO2 tax compared to the situation where the industry only paid for quota credits.

Wood Mackenzie suggests that Norway could still maintain production relatively flat or slightly reduced through 2030, even with increasing CO2 tax. However, production is expected to be 3-4% lower than without the tax in 2035 and 11-13% lower in 2040 with rising CO2 tax compared to without, according to the analysis. High CO2 taxes are less attractive for exploration, according to the analysis.

Wood Mackenzie argues that the high tax will primarily cut off supply by allowing resources to remain in the ground and closing down central fields earlier. The company believes that high CO2 taxes may not trigger a shift towards alternative energy sources like wind or carbon capture. Many projects to electrify have been canceled in recent years due to high costs and political uncertainty.

The CEO of the environmental organization Zero, Stig Schjølset, believes that the CO2 tax for the oil and gas sector should not be removed. Removing the CO2 tax could lead to oil and gas companies paying less for emissions than other sectors, which he considers unfair.