Why Moderna Stock Dropped on Thursday
Moderna promised 20% sales growth in 2026 -- but Wall Street wants 24%.
On Thursday, Moderna's stock plummeted more than 6% during early trading before slightly recovering, marking a 2% loss by 11:50 a.m. ET. The primary cause was Moderna's analyst day, during which the company unveiled financial projections for the remainder of the year but offered little insight into the following year. The company forecasted full-year 2026 revenue growth between 15% and 25%, which exceeds prior estimates of a 10% growth.
Additionally, Moderna's profit margins are improving, with management anticipating a 10% increase in gross margins. Simultaneously, the company is reducing costs to retain more of its profits, potentially resulting in a decrease in losses per share in 2025.
Wall Street expects Moderna to generate $2.4 billion in 2026 sales, which is a shortfall for Moderna. However, if the company manages to lower its margins as hoped, it could potentially surpass the Street's estimates. A significant concern for investors lies in the medium-term cash costs. Moderna has accelerated its cost reductions, shifting the 2027 cash cost framework to 2026.
However, the company anticipates approximately $4 billion in cash costs for 2027, mirroring the levels seen in 2023 and 2024 but higher than the $2.1 billion spent in 2025. Furthermore, annual cash costs are projected to average between $4 billion and $4.5 billion from 2027 to 2030, indicating rising costs in the medium term. This development may have contributed to the decline in Moderna's stock price today.
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