Why do Abu Dhabi talks resume after nine-month pause? Washington needs progress before new Congress asks questions in January, diplomat says

Abu Dhabi talks between Russia and Ukraine have resumed after a nine-month break. The last negotiations yielded nothing new, except for an increase in Russian aggression against Ukrainian civilians. A concrete result this time is a plan for a large-scale prisoner exchange. However, there is no ceasefire, and the war continues. To understand the purpose of these talks, I spoke with Iuliia Osmolovska, a diplomat and Director of the Kyiv office of the international think tank GLOBSEC.

She believes that there is no significant difference between the current talks and those from earlier in the year. The talks have been ongoing for almost two years without any progress. The situation is different now because the United States is engaged in dialogue with Russia, and Russia sees the talks as important for their strategic goals.

They are not willing to change their position and are using negotiation tactics to delay the process. Ukraine is participating because they need to address the escalating war's impact on their population. The Ukrainian government will support any proposals, but the exchange of prisoners is not a clear indicator of Russia's intent to end the war.

A genuine ceasefire would be a better sign. The key takeaway is that these talks are more of a pretense, as both sides are not close to achieving their strategic goals. Russia is likely to continue pressuring Ukraine militarily. The talks do not reward Russia for its aggression, but Russia still holds significant influence in the diplomatic process.

Ultimately, the war will be decided through a combination of military and political factors, both domestically and internationally.