Why Anthropic’s IPO could put OpenAI at a disadvantage

Anthropic and OpenAI are set to become the first two AI-focused companies to go public through an initial public offering (IPO). Anthropic is expected to list its stock (ticker symbol: "ANT") first, potentially on November 19, while OpenAI is anticipated to wait until early the following year. The scheduling of these IPOs is crucial because both companies are in a highly costly industry and are competing for the same pool of investors, both retail and institutional.

Both firms are seeking to raise capital at valuations exceeding a trillion dollars due to growing concerns about rising interest rates, stock market volatility, heightened scrutiny of AI company valuations, and a negative political climate. However, no AI bubble has burst yet, so it might be advantageous for Anthropic and OpenAI to go public while conditions are relatively favorable.

Harrison Rolfes, an analyst at PitchBook, suggests that there may be a necessity for both companies to go public. They continue to purchase, lease, or build computing power, often relying on venture capital and debt for these expenses. As private capital becomes more scarce, they need to tap the public markets. For Anthropic, the urgency is greater, as their compute costs are due in December.

Anthropic has demonstrated robust revenue growth during 2026, which supports their proposed valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. By being at this valuation at this time, they can maintain interest and build momentum leading up to their IPO. OpenAI, on the other hand, may have temporarily postponed their IPO due to the significant capital they raised in the private market this year.

In March, OpenAI raised $122 billion, and a recent Reuters report indicates they are attempting to raise additional capital at a valuation of over $1.4 trillion. They aim to lock in these commitments before Anthropic's IPO.

OpenAI has a more diverse revenue base than Anthropic, including consumer subscriptions, advertising, and licensing agreements with partners such as Microsoft. OpenAI's revenue grew by more than 50% to over $10 billion in the third quarter. However, OpenAI must craft a compelling story for its public listing that can withstand scrutiny. Earlier this year, OpenAI's CFO, Sara Friar, reportedly cited the absence of such a story as a reason her company would not be ready for a 2026 IPO.