Ukraine Peace Talks Yield Prisoner Deal but No Path to Peace
The first trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the US since early this year produced a measured humanitarian breakthrough, but little tangible progress toward ending the war. The two days of talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10 -11 reached an agreement in principle on a large-scale prisoner exchange and opened discussions on broader European security arrangements. But the sides…
Recent trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi yielded a significant prisoner exchange agreement but made no headway towards ending the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met on November 10-11 to discuss the prisoner swap, which involves up to 1,200 individuals on both sides.
Senior US officials described the talks as tough but productive and noted cautious optimism about detecting flexibility from both sides in private conversations.
However, it appears that Russia and Ukraine are still no closer to achieving a peaceful resolution. The central obstacle, according to Slawomir Debski, a visiting professor at the College of Europe, is that neither side currently perceives a peace settlement that would secure their essential interests at a lower cost than continuing the conflict.
Moscow seeks a peace that converts aggression into a wider strategic victory, while Ukraine aims to preserve its ability to survive. Neither Europe nor the United States are willing to accept Russian control over European security, and America has no compelling strategic reason to facilitate it.
US officials emphasized the importance of the talks, stating they were important for broadening negotiations beyond Ukraine's future to include wider security arrangements for Europe. US envoys are set to travel to Moscow on November 12 to meet Putin before heading to Dublin to discuss matters with Zelenskyy, currently in Ireland. The US administration plans to proceed incrementally, taking things one step at a time, but acknowledges the lack of trust between Kyiv and Moscow.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy mentioned the potential for a prisoner exchange involving up to 1,200 people, but stressed that Kyiv has always advocated for an all-for-all exchange. Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov acknowledged that significant differences remain despite the discussions, while Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Zelenskyy's presidential administration, described the talks as tough but insisted Ukraine's position had not changed.
Russia's chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, ruled out any territorial exchanges as part of a settlement, according to Russian state media.
Zelenskyy also revealed that the Russian delegation rejected Ukraine's proposal for an energy cease-fire, citing no mandate for discussing the issue. Former US Ambassador to the OSCE James Gilmore suggested that Ukraine's counterattacks against Russian infrastructure and growing economic pressure might be pushing the Kremlin to seek a diplomatic victory, as Russia believes it can win a war of attrition.
However, the fundamental question remains: what incentive would be sufficient for Putin to end the war if he believes time and the situation on the battlefield are working in Russia's favor?
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