Nebius Doesn’t Have a Demand Problem. It Has a Delivery Problem.
Revenue jumped 571%, but delays in getting data center capacity online are pushing back the company’s growth targets.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has experienced a significant surge in its stock price this year, up 84% as of 2026, despite a recent sell-off that saw the shares drop 46% below their all-time high. The AI cloud provider's revenue has been growing rapidly, with revenue reaching $980.8 million for the third quarter, a 571% increase from the previous year.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were reported at $465.8 million, marking a significant improvement from a loss of $5.2 million in the same period last year. However, Nebius is grappling with a delivery problem that could impede its ambitious growth plans. Some third-party computing capacity that was expected to be available by the end of 2026 has been delayed until the first half of 2027.
Consequently, the company has lowered its full-year revenue expectations to the lower end of its previous guidance range of $3 billion to $3.4 billion. Nebius had previously anticipated reaching an annualized revenue run rate (ARR) of $7 billion to $9 billion by December, which has now been pushed back to February 2027. Despite this setback, management remains optimistic, projecting capex between $40 billion and $45 billion next year and revenue between $12 billion and $13 billion.
They anticipate reaching pre-tax break-even in the fourth quarter of next year. While Nebius has secured a $3.5 billion financing facility with Citi, the company's inability to control third-party capacity issues poses a significant challenge, with even minor scheduling problems having major financial consequences.
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