Is the RBA worried about AI and jobs
Assistant Governor (Economic), Sarah Hunter, gave an informative speech this week about whether the central bank sees AI as macroeconomic phenomenon. So far, there is little evidence that AI has had large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies, although there are emerging signs of weaker hiring, particularly among younger workers in highly AI-exposed occupations.15 The post Is the…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has expressed concern about the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment in a recent speech by Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter. While there is currently limited evidence that AI has significantly affected aggregate employment in advanced economies, emerging signs suggest weaker hiring, particularly among younger workers in occupations heavily exposed to AI.
In Australia, the RBA's liaison program indicates that most firms have not yet experienced AI's impact on headcount, and this trend is expected to persist over the next year.
This observation aligns with occupation-level analysis, which shows little indication so far that AI has significantly disrupted the labor market. However, there are tentative signs of adjustment, including weaker job ad postings (Graph 9) and employment outcomes in AI-exposed occupations (Graph 10), coupled with stronger growth in sectors less impacted by the technology, especially for younger workers (Graph 10).
Nevertheless, these differences are modest, and it is premature to determine if they reflect AI adoption or other factors.
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