How the midterms swing each party's economic feelings

The midterms sparked a noticeable shift in public sentiment, according to data from Morning Consult, exclusively shared with Axios. This phenomenon, typically common after presidential elections, was particularly pronounced in midterm races. The data reveals how closely Americans' economic views are now tied to politics.

On average, Democratic consumer sentiment surged by 6.5 points in the five days post-election, contrasting with a 6.4-point decline in Republicans' mood. Morning Consult's index examines survey responses from around 5,000 U.S. adults, probing on personal finances and financial outlook, as well as views on overall business conditions.

The most significant sentiment changes were observed in respondents' views on the future. Republicans' confidence in business conditions over the next five years dropped by 12 percentage points, while Democrats saw a 9-point jump in confidence about business conditions. Democrats also experienced a 12-point increase in optimism regarding their own financial improvement over the next year, despite remaining skeptical of future business conditions.

Interestingly, both parties exhibited a more negative view of their current finances compared to a year ago. Overall sentiment, encompassing Independents, only marginally improved by less than one point, as per Morning Consult. The opposing partisan shifts seemingly neutralized each other.

However, sentiment analysis has evolved into a more political indicator. Eli Yokley, a U.S. politics analyst at Morning Consult, notes that consumer sentiment now more closely resembles a political measure rather than a measure of actual spending behavior. This shift is crucial as sentiment can influence economic behavior, typically leading to more spending when sentiments are positive.