Forget DP seat! ODM can only secure govt jobs if Ruto wins the 2027 election – TIFA

In a recent poll conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), Kenyan President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have tied for the top spot as preferred candidates for the 2027 presidential election. The survey, carried out between October 26 and November 5, 2026, reveals that both leaders have garnered nearly equal support from the public, indicating a closely contested race between the incumbent president and the emerging opposition figure.

TIFA emphasizes that the poll reflects respondents' preferred presidential choice rather than their voting intentions or any assumption about the winning candidate. The survey also indicates that other opposition and potential presidential candidates have a combined 19 per cent support, suggesting Sifuna could reach the 50 per cent mark if his supporters unite behind him.

However, TIFA warns that this outcome cannot be guaranteed due to competition among opposition leaders and the political advantages held by an incumbent president. The findings position Sifuna as a prominent contender among opposition candidates, possibly leading to his emergence as a leading candidate if opposition parties agree to rally behind a single candidate.

Sifuna's popularity surge, according to TIFA, has primarily come at the expense of other opposition figures rather than President Ruto, a trend not observed in previous pre-election surveys since 1997. The survey's findings indicate differences in support bases between Ruto and Sifuna. Ruto enjoys 83 per cent support from respondents identifying with the broad-based government (BBG), while Sifuna garners 66 per cent support from those opposed to the arrangement.

The study also highlights that a significant portion of undecided respondents have limited knowledge or interest in the BBG. Among undecided voters, 36 per cent have no opinion about the BBG, and 43 per cent are unaware of its existence. The survey's insights into supporters of different political parties reveal strong loyalty to their respective party leaders.

Most UDA supporters prefer President Ruto, Linda Mwananchi supporters back Sifuna, Wiper supporters favor Kalonzo Musyoka, and Jubilee supporters lean towards former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, with his party support at 57 per cent. Notably, Sifuna outperforms former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua among Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) supporters, securing 34 per cent compared to Gachagua's 25 per cent.

Sifuna also closely follows Ruto among ODM supporters, with 33 per cent backing him against Ruto's 42 per cent. Additionally, Ruto remains more popular among Jubilee supporters than any other opposition candidate in the poll. The survey also indicates a growing support base for Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi movement, which has replaced ODM as the second-most-supported political formation.

This shift in the opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election underscores the increasing prominence of Sifuna in discussions surrounding a potential united opposition candidate.