Exclusive-Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr's advisory contract due to Polymarket conflict

On November 12, Kalshi, a $40 billion prediction markets startup, terminated its advisory contract with Donald Trump Jr. The decision was mutually agreed upon due to a conflict of interest: Trump Jr.'s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, had recently increased its stake in Polymarket, a direct competitor of Kalshi. A Kalshi spokesperson expressed gratitude for Trump Jr.'s contributions in promoting the company to new customers.

The dispute emerged in August, as 1789 Capital's involvement in Polymarket's most recent funding round triggered the discussions to dissolve the contract. Trump Jr. was appointed as a strategic advisor to Kalshi in January 2025 and received a $300,000 stake in the company, according to the Financial Times. During this time, prediction markets gained prominence by accurately forecasting a Trump victory, and Kalshi boasted about the precision of its polls while criticizing other polling sources and traditional media.

The rise of prediction markets also placed them under increased scrutiny from Democrats in the US Congress, with Senator Elizabeth Warren promising to address insider trading on these platforms. Polymarket and Donald Trump Jr. declined to comment on the matter.