El Niño threatens health, too—early warnings done right can save lives
As communities around the world shore up their infrastructure in anticipation of one of the most powerful El Niños on record in late 2026 and early 2027, they need to think about rising health risks, too—and include them in early weather warnings.
As southern Africa braces for a potentially severe drought during the 2026-27 growing season, and the Horn of Africa faces heightened risks of flooding and mosquito-borne disease outbreaks, early warning systems for El Niño's health impacts are crucial. In the United States, the South can expect wetter-than-normal conditions, while the Northern Plains may experience drought and fierce storms along the Pacific Coast.
El Niño's effects can extend beyond immediate hazards, as research has linked exposure to flooding, wildfires, and ecosystem changes with heightened risks of illnesses, psychological distress, and long-term chronic stress. Floodwater can transmit infections, while drought may result in poor air quality and malnutrition. Disasters can also hinder access to essential healthcare, disrupt livelihoods, and displace individuals from their homes and social networks, leading to anticipatory long-term distress.
Mental health counseling should be integrated into preparedness and recovery plans, as El Niño-related anxiety and post-traumatic stress are significant concerns. Vulnerable populations, such as those with pre-existing illnesses and those in remote areas, require early warnings to prepare adequately, as El Niño storms can cause widespread damage and cut off transportation routes, particularly in rural regions.
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