British Pound steadies above 1.3250 as traders await UK GDP data

The British Pound steadied above 1.3250 during the early Asian trading session on Thursday. Market participants remain focused on the forthcoming UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q3, which will be released later on the same day. Earlier this week, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene indicated that it was prudent to proactively tighten monetary policy to address the risk of wage growth remaining elevated, and firms transferring increased costs to consumers.

Greene's hawkish remarks could provide support to the British Pound (Cable) against the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. In contrast, traders are optimistic about a potential Fed rate hike in December, following stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted at his support for a quarter-point rate increase in December, with the possibility of a half-point hike if inflation data is worse than anticipated.

Currently, there is an 87.3% probability of a Fed rate increase in December, as per the CME FedWatch Tool, while the likelihood of a 50 basis points hike stands at 12.7%. Global markets have shown broad-based strength in the dollar, driven by hawkish shifts in Fed rate expectations amid the October CPI print, amplified by recent statements from Fed officials.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that UK rates are beginning the week on a stable footing, with the 10-year Treasury Real Yield (10y IRS) remaining unchanged at 4.70% after holding steady at 4.69% (100-day moving average) the previous week. Key technical levels include support at 4.58%, resistance at 4.78%, and the recent intervention by Bank of England Governor Bailey, which is a significant event for Sterling and UK rates traders.

Looking ahead, Societe Generale anticipates a busy global data calendar, featuring US CPI, PPI, Fed speeches (including Waller and Williams), the second read of EU 3Q GDP, UK pre-release 3Q GDP, and trade balance data from various nations, including Mexico, Norway, Czech Republic, Hungary, and India. UK economists focus on Thursday's growth release, with pre-release 3Q GDP expected to show a quarterly growth of 0.7%, reflecting domestic momentum following the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision.

Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene delivered a strongly hawkish signal during her speech, earning a 9.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score, significantly above the historical 7.7/10 baseline. Her emphasis on "proactively tightening our monetary policy stance" and the assertion that UK wage growth is "too high" and labor market slack is smaller than previously thought strengthens the case for a more robust Pound bias, as markets price in a higher probability of additional Bank of England tightening measures.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias, as the pair trades below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The currency pair is consolidating within the lower half of the recent Bollinger envelope, with the lower band offering nearby support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 43 indicates muted, slightly negative momentum rather than oversold conditions.

On the upside, initial resistance is found near the Bollinger middle band at 1.3370, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, with a stronger resistance level near the Bollinger upper band at 1.3475. Downside support is evident at the Bollinger lower band at 1.3260; a decisive break below this level could trigger a deeper decline, while a sustained trading above this level would keep the pair in a range, albeit pressured by overhead moving-average resistance.