Betting markets see a longtime Nvidia insider as the favorite to replace Jensen Huang, interim CEO Colette Kress is second

With Jensen Huang stepping down as CEO, betting markets are turning to predict who will assume the role at Nvidia. Trading activity in contracts surrounding his successor surged on Kalshi and Polymarket, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in trades. On Thursday, Nvidia disclosed Huang's resignation and appointed finance chief Colette Kress as interim CEO, while also stating the board is seeking a permanent replacement.

However, Kress is not the top choice to replace Huang. Ian Buck, Nvidia's VP and general manager of high-performance computing, currently leads the pack on Kalshi with 37% odds. Kress follows in second place with 19%, just ahead of Rene Haas, CEO of British chip designer Arm Holdings, with 9%. Arm provides Nvidia with licensed technology.

The trading volume in the markets has surpassed $1.5 million. On Polymarket, the same top contenders are favored with similar odds and trading volume nearing $630,000. Madison Huang, Jensen Huang's daughter and senior director of product marketing at Nvidia, is far behind, with less than a 1% chance of succeeding her father on Kalshi and approximately 2% on Polymarket.

Prediction markets have been tracking the turmoil at Nvidia since the company announced an investigation into Huang, who admitted to having a close relationship with a business executive believed to be a Chinese spy. The scandal worsened on Wednesday when allegations surfaced of Huang having an extramarital affair with an Nvidia employee.

Traders are not just betting on Nvidia's next leader but also on the exact timing of Huang's announcement of his departure. A Polymarket contract has generated over $22.5 million in trading volume for when Huang will make the announcement. Another active Kalshi contract, which asks when Huang will testify before Congress, has seen nearly $170,000 in trading volume.

The odds of testifying before July are estimated at 93% by Polymarket, compared to roughly 91% before January and 86% before December. This turmoil has also affected Nvidia's stock price, with shares falling roughly 5% in early trading on Thursday at around $165. Traders on Kalshi are also speculating on the stock price movements through perpetual futures contracts, where they can bet on the price rising or falling without owning shares. These contracts have recorded $111 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours.