Allegro shares gain 4% as Q3 profit rises, FY earnings outlook raised

Allegro shares surged over 4% on Thursday following the Polish e-commerce firm's upward revision of its full-year core profit forecast to between 22% and 24%, up from the previous 13%-17% range. This improvement was driven by a fresh delivery pact with InPost and accelerated fourth-quarter sales in Poland. The company's third-quarter adjusted EBITDA climbed 22.9% to 1.13 billion zlotys, while gross merchandise value (GMV) expanded 17.8%.

Poland's adjusted EBITDA rose 19.2% to 1.23 billion zlotys, contributing significantly to the group's performance. The international unit's loss narrowed by 10.5% to 103.0 million zlotys, as GMV soared 101.7% to 1.21 billion zlotys. Allegro's upgraded guidance reflects strong trading and a new InPost framework agreement. For Poland, adjusted EBITDA is now expected to grow 18.5%-20.5% to 4.7-4.8 billion zlotys, up from the prior 11%-14% forecast.

The group's adjusted EBITDA outlook has been raised to 4.2-4.3 billion zlotys, up from 4.0-4.2 billion zlotys. GMV growth for the group is now anticipated to reach 15%-16%, compared to the earlier 13%-15% forecast, while revenue growth is now seen at 17%-18%, versus the previous 14%-16%. Capital expenditure is projected at approximately 1.1 billion zlotys, up from the prior range of 1.04-1.15 billion zlotys.

The international unit's loss is expected to narrow by 3%-7%, unchanged from the previous estimate. In the first five weeks of Q4, Poland's GMV grew around 16% year-over-year, surpassing the 14.7% growth in Q3 and the 13% increase so far this year. International GMV growth stood at about 100%, while overall group growth was around 17%, compared to 15% thus far in the year.

Poland's take rate fell by 0.44 percentage points to 12.54% in Q3, down from 12.98% a year earlier, primarily due to the absence of major annual fee hikes, deeper take-rate discounts, and lower revenue from legacy promotion services. Advertising revenue in Poland increased by 34.3% to 453.2 million zlotys, while marketing spending dropped 5.3% to 333.9 million zlotys after a decline in demand for traffic from Chinese e-commerce platforms following an EU customs change on July 1.

The group's net profit from continuing operations rose 39.3% to 574.7 million zlotys in the quarter, and for the first nine months, adjusted EBITDA increased 19.1% to 3.09 billion zlotys, while net profit climbed 34.0% to 1.45 billion zlotys. Active buyers grew by 4.9% to 21.5 million. Operating cash flow for the nine months reached 2.22 billion zlotys, compared to 1.38 billion zlotys a year ago.

The company's net debt stood at 3.22 billion zlotys as of September 30, compared to 2.80 billion zlotys at year-end 2025. Allegro allocated 917.9 million zlotys to share buybacks in the third quarter under its 1.6 billion zloty share repurchase program.