Politics with Michelle Grattan: Kos Samaras & Richard Willingham on Victoria’s expected change of government
On this podcast we speak to two close observers about the Victorian election, RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras and the ABC’s Victorian state reporter Richard Willingham.
Victoria is set to hold its election in less than two weeks, with indications suggesting that the Liberals, led by first-term MP Jess Wilson, are poised to become the victors. The Coalition, in partnership with the Nationals, has shown promising momentum, though there remains uncertainty about whether the outcome could result in a minority government reliant on One Nation for confidence and supply.
In a recent podcast, two experts shared their insights on the contest: pollster Kos Samaras from RedBridge and the ABC's Victorian state reporter, Richard Willingham.
Samaras highlighted that despite a late switch in Labor's leadership from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, the decline in Labor's standing in the polls and seat count is likely irreversible. The leadership change, Samaras believes, has negatively impacted the campaign infrastructure, resulting in the loss of key campaign personnel.
In contrast, One Nation's position in Victoria appears less favorable, as voters have shifted their focus from concerns about the Coalition's capability to a more favorable perception of the current government.
Willingham discussed the potential negative consequences of Labor's decision to launch a royal commission into the "Big Build" during the election campaign. He argued that the commission could damage the Labor government's image, expose allegations of misconduct, and solidify voter dissatisfaction with the previous administrations. Willingham sees Jess Wilson as an appealing candidate for many voters who are seeking change and feel connected to Wilson's new, approachable persona.
In terms of federal factors, Willingham posits that the recent interest rate rise, announced on Melbourne Cup day, has significantly impacted labor's popularity. Voters view the premier as a decision-maker, regardless of the actual responsibility for the inflationary crisis, and the interest rate hike may have caused a decline in Labor's primary vote in recent days.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
