Penganalisis ramal saingan sengit di 7 kerusi panas

With seven constituencies expected to see fierce competition between the BN-PN coalition and Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Bersatu, the 2021 general election has been generating significant interest. Historically, 13 seats were won with narrow margins, but this time, BN-PN's alliance is expected to unite Malay voters, potentially transforming narrow victories into landslide wins in most constituencies. Analysts from FMT's three political observers share similar views on the possible winners in most of these constituencies.

In Bukit Katil, former Deputy Chief Minister Adly Zahari faces three challengers in his bid for a third term. The incumbent won the seat with a slim majority of 1,057 votes in the 2021 election, but BN-PN's alliance, with 64.8% of Malay voters, might pose a challenge. The potential shift of Malay votes could prove crucial in determining the outcome.

In Ayer Hitam, Chinese voters make up the largest ethnic group with 46%, followed by Malay voters at 44%. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) has held the seat since 2008, while the current incumbent, Kerk Chee Yee, won the 2021 election with a comfortable margin of 5,624 votes. The increasing Malay voter turnout over the decades has led to a more balanced voter distribution.

BN-PN's alliance has the potential to alienate DAP from their stronghold in this constituency. However, Kerk's popularity among younger voters, including his age, could pose a challenge for the alliance.

In Paya Romput, the seat has traditionally been a BN stronghold, but it was won by PH in 2018 before being taken back by BN in 2021. PH has fielded Deputy Chief Minister's Office Chief Azman Abidin, who is also a senior official in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's administration. Azman is a prominent figure in PH and believes his relationship with the Prime Minister can help strengthen the relationship between the federal and state governments.

BN, on the other hand, has handed over the seat to PN, fielding Rafie Ahmad, whose Malay voter base makes up 62% of the electorate. The loss of this seat would be a significant blow to PH.

In Klang Valley, DAP has held the seat since 2008, but the increasing number of Chinese voters in the area (54%) and the potential impact of Malay voter turnout shifts could threaten DAP's dominance. Wawasan's candidate, Albert Kok, may face difficulty overcoming the significant margin achieved by incumbent Allex Seah in 2021, who won with a large majority of 10,237 votes.

In Pengkalan Batu, BN has placed Deputy Chief Minister's Office Deputy Chief Hang Tuah Jaya, Siti Aisyah Mahmood, in an effort to retain the seat. The traditionally Malay-majority constituency (62%) also includes significant Chinese (27%) and Indian (5%) populations. Four candidates are competing for the seat, with DAP having won it a few times in the past. The recent shift towards a BN-PN alliance could lead to DAP's defeat in this constituency.

In Bemban, the seat has changed hands multiple times in recent years. The Democratic Action Party (DAP) lost the seat to Umno in 2021 with a narrow margin of 131 votes. The current incumbent, Dr Yadzil Yaakub, who is now with Wawasan, contested the seat under PN, but BN's decision to back him may play a crucial role in determining the outcome.