Nelson Mandela Bay faces third coalition government after hung council result, expert weighs in

The Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality finds itself in a precarious position following the 2026 Local Government Elections, which resulted in a hung council and consequently a third coalition government. The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) reported that seven out of eight metropolitan municipalities are currently in hung situations, a stark contrast to the previous election where only five were.

Nelson Mandela Bay has previously experienced coalition governments since the 2016 Local Government Election, with the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) dominating the political landscape. However, the recent elections have led to a reshuffling of alliances, with the DA now holding 53 seats, while the ANC holds 32, and other parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), South African Communist Party (SACP), and Patriotic Alliance (PA) securing fewer seats.

Political experts have weighed in on the potential coalition formations. Danielle Barnes, a lecturer at Nelson Mandela University, suggests that the DA is unlikely to form a coalition with the ANC due to Riker’s size principle, which posits that parties prefer a minimum winning coalition. The DA, needing just 8 more seats to lead, is more likely to form a coalition with two to four smaller parties.

However, the ANC, requiring more support, might have to expand its coalition to include at least 10 parties, a move that could lead to instability and inefficiency.

The proposed coalition partners could include the EFF, SACP, and PA, which together would secure a 64-seat majority. However, this alliance might be difficult due to ideological differences between the parties. Another potential coalition could involve the PA, FF Plus, and another smaller party, securing a 61-seat majority. Barnes emphasizes that political parties should prioritize the community's needs over personal or political gains when forming coalitions, recommending a fixed term of office for the mayor and regular coalition meetings to ensure stability.