Is It Too Late to Buy Tesla Stock?

Tesla's stock remains a hot topic on Wall Street, despite its underwhelming performance over the past five years. While it's down more than 12%, potential investors must consider what the stock could become rather than what it has been. A key aspect of managing investor expectations, according to experts, is to underpromise and overdeliver.

However, Tesla has done the opposite, with CEO Elon Musk making grand promises that have not been met. These include claims about robotaxis on the road by 2020, 20 million Tesla vehicles a year by 2030, and autonomous ride-hailing in half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. CEO Musk's track record of missed estimates and false timelines raises concerns for investors.

One of the most significant predictions, Tesla's robotaxi rollout, has been the subject of much discussion. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest believes that the robotaxi will make up 81% of Tesla's enterprise value by 2031. However, Tesla's management has been cautious in their recent statements, emphasizing the importance of validating and releasing the next major upgrade to its Full Self-Driving software before a general Cybercab release.

Additionally, Tesla's head of artificial intelligence, Ashok Elluswamy, mentioned that the robotaxi's permitted use conditions are expanding to more weather conditions, day and night, highways, and high speeds. While these developments are progress, they are still far from the massive rollout of 1 million robotaxis or service to half the U.S. population.

Nevertheless, the gradual refinement of both FSD and operational matters related to managing a robotaxi fleet suggests that the company is on track to deliver on its long-term growth aspirations, making it a potential buy for speculative investors.