Iran war, Hormuz disruptions drive first drop in global fossil fuel emissions since 2020 - report
Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020, partly as the Iran war cut oil and gas use. Researchers warn the decline is unlikely to last.
Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, reaching approximately 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to researchers. This decline is primarily due to disruptions in oil and gas production caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran, as well as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
These events have led to price surges for crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, and diesel, prompting nations to reduce consumption and seek alternative energy sources, such as coal or renewables.
This year's reduction in oil demand is unprecedented, marking the first significant drop since 2020, when global emissions decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, expressed this as a rare occurrence. The 2026 Global Carbon Budget report, cited by the New York Times, projects a 1.9% drop in oil emissions and a 0.3% decline in natural gas emissions, while coal emissions are expected to increase by 0.6%. Moreover, emissions from deforestation and other land-use changes are anticipated to rise.
Researchers caution that a decline in fossil CO2 emissions driven by geopolitical crises may not be a sustainable long-term solution to curb global emissions. Prof. Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, emphasized the importance of accelerating the deployment of clean energy technologies and electric vehicles to ensure a peak and sustained reduction in global emissions.
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