Immigration arrests go on unabated despite Trump’s misgivings after the GOP’s midterm wipeout

The Democrats’ strong showing in the U.S. midterm elections has generated optimism that improved relations with India and South Africa might be on the horizon. Both nations faced diplomatic and economic challenges under President Donald Trump’s administration. However, Trump’s foreign policy stance may remain unpredictable and aggressive despite the Democratic-controlled Congress.

Analysts suggest that with the White House potentially scaling back some of its controversial domestic policies, Trump might channel more energy into foreign affairs to assert his authority. India, already struggling with the consequences of Trump’s hardline MAGA agenda, could face a more aggressive approach from the U.S., including higher trade tariffs, stricter immigration measures, and the strain of the Iran war’s economic repercussions, which have led to rising fuel prices.

India, the third-largest oil importer, temporarily halted Russian oil purchases due to Washington's pressure on New Delhi to comply with sanctions against Moscow, which disrupted its energy strategy and economic growth. The Democrats may urge Trump to alleviate tariffs and limit his control over trade policy. However, an unpredictable Trump could instead double down on tariffs to compensate for his diminished domestic influence, potentially subjecting India to further tariff pressure.

South Africa suffered a double blow from Trump's policies, including the imposition of up to 50% tariffs on certain exports and the withdrawal of benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) starting next year. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed hope that the Democrats' control of Congress could help preserve Agoa, but there is no guarantee Trump will reconsider his stance, especially given his unfounded concerns about "white genocide" in South Africa and opposition to redress policies like broad-based black economic empowerment.

Additionally, Trump's immigration policies have particularly impacted highly skilled Indian professionals and South African nationals, with MAGA's anti-immigration stance possibly costing Republicans support among Indian-American voters. The Democrats are expected to scrutinize Trump's controversial immigration and refugee policies, potentially through committee investigations, congressional funding powers, and increased public oversight.

However, the appointment of Stephen Miller, a staunch immigration hardliner, as White House chief of staff has raised concerns about Trump's continued hardline stance. Ultimately, India and South Africa cannot afford to remain overly reliant on any goodwill from Washington.