Global fertilizer prices to drop 12% in 2027, offering potential relief to Ghanaian farmers
Ghana’s agricultural sector could benefit from an anticipated decline in global fertilizer prices in 2027, potentially easing input cost pressures on farmers and supporting food production, although lingering geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions could undermine the expected relief. The World Bank Group, in its October Commodity Outlook Report 2026, projects that global fertilizer prices…
Ghana's agricultural sector could see a potential 12% reduction in global fertilizer prices by 2027, according to the World Bank Group's October Commodity Outlook Report. This projection follows an estimated 14% increase in fertilizer prices in 2026, primarily due to rising production costs, recovering supplies, and increased exports from non-Gulf producers.
While the expected price decline could provide relief to Ghanaian farmers, who face affordability challenges, the benefits may not be immediate as prices are anticipated to remain elevated throughout 2026. Urea prices, a key fertilizer input, are expected to rise by 16% in 2027, while di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) prices are projected to fall by 18%, and muriate of potash (MOP) prices to decrease by 9%.
Despite these projections, the World Bank warns that risks to the fertilizer price outlook remain unfavorable. The bank cautions that conflicts in the Middle East could worsen shipping disruptions and push up input costs, potentially reinstating fertilizer price increases. Additionally, export restrictions by major producers pose a risk to the anticipated price decline.
Consequently, Ghanaian farmers could experience varied outcomes depending on how international price movements translate into local market prices and farmers' access to agricultural inputs.
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