Global bullies have turned uncertainty into a weapon

In uncertain times, leaders grapple with de-risking and hedging strategies, seeking to minimize reliance on partners who have lost trust. However, these efforts often prove futile, as numerous unpredictable forces are reshaping the global landscape. Among the most destabilizing actors are the United States and China, who now prioritize ambiguous rules and hard-to-enforce agreements that keep trading partners dependent on their goodwill.

This trend of uncertainty is not exclusive to the superpowers; other nations, such as Russia and Iran, exploit the chaotic climate to sow confusion and weaken adversaries. Russia, in particular, appears to be using fear tactics to undermine global stability. European governments, already grappling with unease, find themselves unsure whether recent threats against flights are genuine or part of Russia's hybrid warfare against NATO. The uncertainty surrounding these threats leaves European leaders vulnerable to manipulation.

Iran, another master of ambiguity, is using the global uncertainty to its advantage. Following the stalemated war in the Gulf, Iran has been accused of conducting difficult-to-attributed cyberattacks against Western countries, including French supermarkets. Despite the lack of clear logic behind these attacks, Western leaders understand that uncertainty serves as a powerful weapon.