Eni, Fincantieri and RINA present the second edition of the Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook

Eni, Fincantieri and RINA have unveiled the second edition of the Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook in Rome, with technical support from Bain & Company Italy. This report offers a global examination of decarbonisation solutions for maritime transport, contrasting various technology and fuel options based on their emissions reduction potential, maturity, infrastructure, and Total Cost of Ownership through 2050.

The analysis is backed by interviews with stakeholders representing over 40% of the container market and 20% of the cruise market, engine and propulsion technology suppliers, ports, and industry associations.

The second edition highlights an increasingly uncertain landscape since last year, but viable options for reducing environmental impact are already available. Europe is projected to achieve an 80% reduction in emissions intensity by 2050, while the global reduction is estimated at around 40%. The Outlook's "Today as Future" scenario anticipates Europe meeting its decarbonisation targets by 2050, while the world follows suit several years later.

Compared to last year, three of the four transition indicators, including regulatory framework, macroeconomic conditions, fuel and infrastructure availability, and technological maturity, have worsened. Regulatory uncertainty has the most significant impact.

The global IMO agreement's postponement and the US's opposition to maritime decarbonisation have shifted the global trajectory. Europe has reaffirmed its targets under FuelEU Maritime. The economic outlook remains uncertain due to slowing growth, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, while the Hormuz Strait crisis increases trade risks.

The low-emission hydrogen value chain has slowed, with many projects on hold. However, technology still plays a crucial role, with the orderbook for alternative-fuel vessels growing slowly but steadily.

Shipowners are now favoring mature, readily available solutions, and synthetic fuels from green hydrogen are essential for achieving net zero. Eni is a leader in producing HVO biofuels from renewable feedstocks, which complement existing vessels and infrastructure. Alongside LNG and bio-LNG, biofuels can decarbonize maritime transport, and Europe needs a regulatory framework recognizing their role across all transport sectors.

Fincantieri supports decarbonisation through a flexible approach, integrating various technologies and creating innovative solutions. The cruise sector currently relies on LNG, which can gradually decarbonize through bio-LNG and eventually e-LNG. Biofuels like HVO and dual-fuel propulsion systems expand available options, while shipyards and shipowners need retrofit support.

RINA contributes engineering and technological expertise to help operators across the value chain identify and adopt effective solutions, assessing technological maturity, practical feasibility, and environmental performance while ensuring compliance with regulations. The Outlook sets concrete commitments for every player in the value chain, including common rules and standards for regulators and certification bodies, targeted investments, flexible infrastructure for ports, diversified fuel suppliers, versatile vessels, and continuous R&D investments by engine manufacturers.

Pragmatism means starting with mature technologies while creating adaptable platforms for future growth. Eni, Fincantieri, and RINA have committed to continuing the Observatory's work for the next three years, marking the first step in a collaborative journey expected to deepen and evolve.