EDITORIAL. Quanto mais demora, mais caro fica

The longer the delay, the more expensive it becomes, as President Lula traveled to COP31 and continued to hold onto the outdated notion that "there's a time for politics and another for economics." Elections did not provide a break or a hiatus for reorganizing the government and deciding the next steps. The victory did not come without a cost, as the country remains divided and leaves a significant debt to pay in the economy.

Elections are not a blank check or a license to delay difficult decisions. The time to act is now. The government has systematically burned bridges with the market, a market that the president could have won instead of frightening. Choosing the path of intimidation requires delivering even more to compensate for the mistrust it creates.

Similarly, gaining trust allows for less, as it can seduce through narrative, credibility, and a future perspective. While the government hasn't announced its plans, the economy reacts. Companies are postponing investment decisions, reducing or delaying orders for equipment and inputs for the next year. Projects are left on the shelf.

The result is less activity, less investment, and inevitably smaller growth. The news yesterday night that the government is coordinating with the Senate an adjustment of 0.5% of GDP for 2027, an economy between R$ 70 billion and R$ 80 billion, is a first step in the right direction, although not large enough and lacking the conviction needed to reverse the confidence crisis.

A little adjustment each year will not recover the trust. Stabilizing debt will require greater ambition. The economy feeds on confidence and hope. When there is uncertainty, it does not stay confined to the finance departments of large companies. It reaches families, who start protecting themselves by delaying consumption decisions.

Those with better conditions start considering taking their resources out of the country. Once that genie is out of the lamp, it is very difficult to bring it back. Capital has no affective commitment to the country. It seeks predictability, security, and return. There is also an external factor that should increase the urgency for President Lula.

The international scenario, which so far offered some margin of comfort, may stop helping. The US inflation released yesterday came above expectations, and the long-term interest rates of Treasury bonds have started to rise again. The prospect of higher US interest rates for longer changes the dynamics of global capital flows, presses emerging market currencies, and makes financing economies with fiscal disparities more expensive.

Our luck could turn. And when it does, it is often fatal for those who had time to prepare but chose not to. If the government intends, as it has signaled, to promote a fiscal adjustment and anchor expectations in a sustainable trajectory for long-term debt, every minute counts. A change in perception could help reduce risk premiums, shift the long-term interest curve downward, ease pressure on the exchange rate, and consequently create space for interest rate reductions.

This means cheaper credit for businesses, less indebted families, and better conditions for investment and growth. It's not a fight between a president who considers himself destined and a supposedly ideological market. This is a caricature, but a deeply mistaken one. It's about recognizing that confidence is an economic asset, and that reconstructing it requires concrete signals, not rhetoric.

Every anticipatory decision has immediate benefits that can be harvested. Every month of hesitation has a price. Investment that doesn't happen today won't necessarily be recovered tomorrow. The company that decides against expanding doesn't wait indefinitely. The family that transfers its patrimony abroad doesn't usually bring it back just because the discourse changes.

People say there's no free lunch. But in this case, perhaps there is. A credible fiscal agenda presented in advance can produce benefits even before its implementation: improve expectations, reduce the cost of capital, and free up private investment decisions. Any cut in spending imposes some political cost, but this is a president with enough capital to do the right thing and leave a legacy of stability.

The problem is that the president seems overly comfortable with the power he has won and too unconcerned about the cost of governing for his base alone. Election victories have already occurred. What matters now is what will be done with them. In the economy, inertia also has a cost. And the account keeps increasing every day.