Asteroid Mining Will Crash the Platinum Market, But That’s Good News for Earth
Science fiction authors have been dreaming of robotic spacecraft harvesting fortunes from asteroids for decades. Humanity is slowly getting closer to that reality. But if you ask asteroid mining skeptics, they will usually ask one specific question - what happens to the prices of all those rare materials once someone actually brings them back? A pair of system dynamicists from MIT directly…
In a recent paper titled "Will AstroForge Collapse the PGM Market?", a pair of MIT system dynamicists delved into the potential impact of asteroid mining on the precious metals market. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) such as platinum and palladium, crucial components in modern industry, are notoriously difficult to extract from Earth's mines, commanding high prices.
However, metallic asteroids hold concentrations of these metals dozens of times higher than terrestrial mines, making them an attractive target for asteroid mining ventures.
One such venture, AstroForge, focuses on returning PGMs to Earth via small, agile probes. The researchers' computer simulation predicts a two-phase transition for the PGM market over the following 20 years. Initially, a "space gold rush" will occur as the influx of asteroid-mined PGMs drives prices down, enabling asteroid mining companies to achieve astronomical profit margins.
This phase will see industry profits skyrocket eightfold. Eventually, however, equilibrium collapse will set in as global PGM supply surpasses terrestrial reserves, causing prices to drop over 75%. While this may spell doom for terrestrial mining operations, the long-term benefits are clear. Cheaper PGMs will facilitate the transition to a green economy, and the reduced hazardous labor and environmental impact of space-based mining will contribute to a healthier planet.
The researchers stress that while the engineering challenges remain, the future of green tech provided by space rocks appears increasingly promising.
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