Argentina could claim Chile’s South American lithium crown by 2035

Argentina could ascend to South America's lead position in lithium production by 2035, according to a new study. GEM Mining Consulting projects Argentina to generate 481,000 tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2035, surpassing Chile's forecasted 426,000 tonnes. Australia and China would maintain their positions as the world's leading producers, with 966,000 tonnes and 619,000 tonnes respectively.

The forecast is based on data from 150 operating mines, future projects, and expansions in 27 countries. The report highlights a shifting landscape as emerging producers challenge established suppliers, although financing and construction delays could impact these rankings. The most significant factor in Argentina's projected advantage over Chile is the Pozuelos–Pastos Grandes project, projected to contribute 90,000 tonnes LCE annually.

Without this project, Argentina's output would only reach about 391,000 tonnes in 2035, falling short of Chile's expected production. Chile's share of the global supply would decrease from approximately 18% in 2026 to 12% in 2035, despite a slight increase in production. The study also notes that emerging lithium producers in countries like Mali, Brazil, and Canada could expand their output, further impacting global supply dynamics.

The report underscores the risks associated with assuming announced project capacity translates to actual future supply, especially when development schedules are contingent on financing and successful commissioning. GEM advises lithium buyers and investors to tie contracted volumes to verifiable milestones, including secured financing, commissioning, and sustained recovery performance.

The consultancy also recommends considering factors beyond mine locations when diversifying supply chains, such as processing capacity and transportation routes.