Xi and Trump set for Apec talks, but major deliverables expected to wait for G20

Next week's Apec summit will see US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting again, but expectations for significant bilateral outcomes remain low. This will be the third face-to-face encounter between the two leaders in 2023, following meetings in May and September. They are also set to convene at the Group of 20 summit in the United States later this year. Both sides are keenly observing global markets to gauge how Washington and Beijing manage their ongoing trade disputes.

Victor Cha, head of geopolitics and foreign policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, suggests that the talks may primarily serve as a routine visit rather than a substantive summit. He indicates that the more crucial meeting is likely to occur three weeks later at the G20 in Miami, where President Xi is set to attend.

While Apec's primary focus is on members maintaining multilateralism and promoting regional prosperity, the US-China relationship, crucial though it is, is not expected to dominate the discussions at either the Apec or G20 summits. Chinese analysts express little optimism regarding major breakthroughs on these multilateral platforms.

The Trump administration has been attempting to downplay expectations for the Apec talks, referring to them as a brief and standard visit. Analysts suggest that while global markets will be closely watching the meeting, the agenda of Apec and its 21 members encompasses more than just bilateral tensions. He Weiwen, a senior fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing, explains that the primary objective of these forums is to uphold multilateralism and collectively advance regional prosperity.

The American election's outcome last week may impact the US administration's focus on trade diplomacy, as it diverts attention towards domestic stability. The extension of the tariff truce until January gives both sides some breathing room to strategize their next steps. However, Chen Fengying, a former director of the Institute of World Economic Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, warns that Washington's overarching strategic posture remains consistent, with curbing China's rise being a shared bipartisan concern.

Despite potential policy shifts, Trump is unlikely to make significant changes to his trade approach, as he seeks to avoid alienating constituents ahead of the 2028 presidential race. According to Cha, a majority of respondents in a forthcoming CSIS poll support enhanced cooperation with international allies and partners, while 85% say they regularly track trade policy due to its direct impact on consumer prices.