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Two Democratic senators, Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley, have urged the White House to reveal if its employees have engaged in trading on prediction market platforms using confidential government information. In a Monday letter to White House counsel Will Scharf, the senators inquired about safeguards the administration has put in place to prevent such abuses.
The request stems from a July report alleging that President Trump's former teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, earned over $100,000 by betting on what Trump would say in multiple speeches via the prediction market Kalshi. Perez subsequently settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, forfeiting his gains, paying a fine, and agreeing to a three-year trading ban.
The senators also asked if White House staff undergo training on rules prohibiting the use of nonpublic information for trading or betting, and whether officials notified the CFTC or Justice Department about Perez's case. They sought a copy of a memo warning staff against such bets and their questions answered by November 23. The White House has yet to comment.
This incident, along with others, has sparked concerns about insiders profiting from nonpublic information on prediction markets. Prosecutors charged a U.S. soldier with using classified data to make over $400,000 on Polymarket bets related to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in April. In February, six newly created Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1 million betting on Iran's potential strike before the end of the month.
The letter sheds light on the scrutiny the Trump administration may face when Democrats regain control of Congress in January. Warren is set to chair the Senate Banking Committee, potentially leading a powerful investigation into financial firms and conflicts involving the president's family businesses. Other Democrats are also pushing for restrictions on prediction markets, with Rep. Ro Khanna calling for a ban on sports prediction markets, deeming them "sports betting disguised as financial trading."
The Trump family has increasingly connected to the prediction market industry during Trump's second term. Donald Trump Jr. advises both Kalshi and Polymarket, and 1789 Capital, where he serves as a partner, has invested in Polymarket. Additionally, Trump Media, the company behind Truth Social, plans to launch a prediction market service called Truth Predict with crypto exchange Crypto.com.
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