What would it take to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine?
Russia and Ukraine are embarking on their first direct peace talks since February, with neither able to achieve a decisive breakthrough on the battlefield. US-hosted talks begin in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, involving Russian and Ukrainian officials with the war approaching its fifth year, and leaked reports suggesting Russia has a toll of more than 440,000 dead since 2022. US, Russian and Ukrainian…
Ukraine and Russia have commenced their inaugural direct peace negotiations since February, with neither nation achieving a decisive win on the battlefield after five years of conflict. The US is facilitating these talks in Abu Dhabi, where Russian and Ukrainian officials will discuss the situation, which has resulted in over 440,000 deaths according to leaked reports.
In addition to American, Russian, and Ukrainian representatives, the talks also include European officials such as Jonathan Powell, a former UK National Security Adviser, and two senior EU envoys. This marks the first time since the war began that Ukraine has suffered daily missile attacks while continuing to carry out strikes deep into Russia's oil refineries.
US President Donald Trump's chief negotiator, Jared Kushner, expressed his determination to end the war by stating that his primary goal is to bring about lasting peace and create favorable conditions for a sovereign, secure, and prosperous Ukraine within a more stable European security environment. However, despite Russia's larger population advantage over Ukraine, there has not been a significant breakthrough in the war since its early stages.
In an attempt to weaken Ukraine ahead of winter, Russia has intensified its campaign of bombing Ukraine's energy sites, which has proven effective, leading to depleted interceptor stocks from the US.
Both sides are enduring the consequences of these attacks, with Ukraine's homegrown arsenal causing substantial damage to Russia's oil industry. While the peace process may mark the beginning of a slow maturation process, no major breakthrough is anticipated in the near future, as both sides remain far apart on territorial claims and post-war security arrangements.
Nevertheless, the temporary ceasefire around the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, facilitated by Melania Trump, suggests that limited agreements can be achieved. However, experts remain skeptical about the prospects of significant progress, as Moscow is likely "lip service" to entering negotiations, continuing its bombardment in the hope of making Kyiv more willing to concede in early 2027.
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