What would it take to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine?

Ukraine and Russia are initiating their first direct peace talks since the war began, with both sides unable to achieve major breakthroughs on the battlefield. The five-year conflict has resulted in over 440,000 fatalities in Russia, according to leaked reports. High-level representatives from the US, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, including former UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell and senior EU envoys, are participating in the talks in Abu Dhabi.

Despite Russia's significant population advantage, with 144 million people compared to Ukraine's 33 million, no key victories have occurred since the war's start. As a result, Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified airstrikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure before winter, causing widespread damage and forcing concessions.

Ukrainian forces are retaliating by targeting Russia's oil industry, which is a crucial revenue source for the Russian state. While the talks mark a step towards a potential peace process, US President Donald Trump's chief negotiator Jared Kushner remains skeptical about the likelihood of a swift resolution, emphasizing the need for a definitive end to the war by 2027.

Experts caution that while the talks are a positive development, major breakthroughs, such as securing NATO Article 5-type security guarantees for Ukraine or territorial concessions for Russia, are unlikely in the near future.