US-mediated talks with Russia and Ukraine on ending war to start in Abu Dhabi, Europe watches nervously

Abu Dhabi, on November 10, will witness the commencement of negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States aimed at ending Europe's most devastating conflict since World War II. This marks the first such meeting in over nine months. Europe, gripped by anxiety following Donald Trump's suggestion of a deal with Moscow on European security, will also send representatives to Abu Dhabi.

The upcoming winter of war looms large as Europe, Ukraine, and the US prepare for these crucial talks. Trump, who has been campaigning for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war since his return to power, has been unsuccessful in previous attempts to broker a breakthrough. Tensions between the US and Russia escalated further with the latter's invasion of Ukraine, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions displaced, and a war that has persisted for 56 months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains unyielding in his stance, demanding Kyiv to cede parts of the occupied Donetsk region or face continued aggression. Ukraine, however, has firmly rejected any territorial concessions. Despite the intensified strikes, including one of the deadliest attacks yet, which left 55 people dead in a frontline village, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the strikes are a part of Moscow's pressure tactics.

Ukrainian military sources reported that Russia had launched 162 drones and a ballistic missile in the early hours of the day. Russian President Putin has consistently refused to engage in broader ceasefire discussions or face-to-face talks with Zelensky. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff will spearhead the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, marking their first encounter since February when talks took place in Geneva.

These negotiations have begun amid skepticism, as Ukraine has expressed that they have no high expectations. Russian envoy Sergei Ryabkov, who previously demanded NATO troops retreat from Eastern Europe before the 2022 invasion, will now be part of the delegation led by Putin's close aide, Vladimir Medinsky. The US envoy, Kushner, stated that a peace settlement would necessitate direct Russia-Europe talks on broader security arrangements affecting them.

This development has raised concerns among European capitals, with German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, urging Moscow to abandon maximalist demands and warning against a "negotiation show" in Abu Dhabi. Zelensky warned against a "Yalta 2.0," referencing the Western leaders' division of Europe with the USSR in 1945. The chief negotiator from Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, confirmed that representatives from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, as well as NATO and EU officials, will participate in separate discussions with Kyiv's representatives in Abu Dhabi.

The Kremlin has insisted on keeping the talks trilateral, despite European skepticism. A recent ceasefire in the Kherson region is seen as a positive precedent by Ukrainian political expert Volodymyr Fesenko, who believes it will inspire Kyiv to seek de-escalation through local truces. Critics have accused Kushner and Witkoff of being too accommodating towards Russia, with US media reporting on potential lucrative business deals with Moscow.