Russian crude exports fall on G7 tankers as Greek operators flee for better earnings

Russian crude exports via G7-flagged tankers declined in October, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea and Maritime Intelligence Risk Suite data. Greek operators, enticed by robust earnings in alternative markets, shifted away from the Black Sea conflicts, causing tanker loadings of Russian crude to drop to 906,000 barrels per day, a 24.2% share of total exports – the lowest in seven months.

In September, G7 tankers handled 1.2 million barrels per day, or 29.2% of total exports. Greek-owned tankers reduced shipments by more than half, with only 8.3 million barrels exported in October, down from 17.3 million in September. October's tanker rates were near all-time highs due to increased demand for offshore transfers and high risk premiums amid the US-Iran conflict.

Greek tanker firms migrated a total of four Aframax and four Suezmax tankers to mainstream trades, while only one Greek-operated tanker lifted Russian crude in the Black Sea last month, compared to 11 in other regions. The International Maritime Organization reported that over 100 ships may have been affected by the Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov this year, potentially resulting in 38 seafarer deaths.

Platts reported a $5 per barrel additional war risk premium for crude exports from the Black Sea, the highest since October 2022. The non-G7 fleet, primarily comprised of shadow tankers owned by Russia and opaque entities to circumvent Western sanctions, still lifted 2.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in October, down from 2.9 million in September.

Tankers operated by Hong Kong, Russian, and UAE entities accounted for 27.7 million, 22.5 million, and 15.6 million barrels, respectively.