Prisveksten i USA var høyere enn ventet i oktober

Inflation rates in the United States exceeded expectations in October, with overall inflation rising by 0.4 percent from September to October, according to the latest economic data. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, increased by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in October. Analysts had anticipated a 0.3 percent monthly increase for total inflation and a 0.2 percent rise for core inflation, as reported by Bloomberg.

This report only provides figures for monthly growth, with the annual growth rate to be released separately. The reason is that federal government shutdown statistics were not collected during October 2025, leaving no basis for comparison with the previous year. The development of inflation rates in the United States must be interpreted based on this month's data.

Nordea economist Nora Vie Holm warned prior to the release of today's figures that September's inflation numbers indicated widespread price growth and rising core inflation over recent months. The Federal Reserve will be watching for signs that the inflationary pressure is easing. Should core inflation again exceed expectations, it could strengthen expectations for another rate hike in December, Holm wrote in a morning report.

DNB Carnegie believes that inflation exceeding expectations in October will support a December rate hike. Inflation has been higher than the targetSince the Federal Reserve sets interest rates to achieve stable prices and maximum employment, the specific inflation target is a 2% annual increase. This target has been consistently missed over the past year.

Rising oil and gas prices due to the conflict in the Middle East have pushed energy prices and inflation higher, particularly through higher fuel costs. This development has also pushed expectations for future inflation and contributed to rate hikes in various parts of the world. An important question is to what extent higher energy prices over time will increase prices for other goods, as higher energy costs for businesses contribute to price increases.

In a statement on Tuesday, Fed Chair Christopher Waller described the situation in the United States as inflation remaining "still too high," while economic growth remains strong and the labor market solid. Waller stated that he supports a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in December, even if today's inflation data shows a slight improvement from September.

He believes additional stronger measures may become necessary if inflation significantly exceeds expectations. The Fed is particularly focused on monitoring the breadth of the high inflation. Waller says he will also watch for how the high energy prices spill over into the development of other goods and services. The Federal Reserve has already raised rates once this year, and there is a good chance of additional hikes. Prior to today's inflation data, there was about an 80% chance of a rate hike in December.