Measles elimination decision brewing, where is the fall vaccination data, and good news you might have missed

A panel of experts is convening this week to determine whether the United States has lost its measles elimination status. If this occurs, it could trigger significant concern. This report aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current situation, anticipated rumors, and the path forward, as well as highlighting the increasing spread of fall viruses. In essence, the "sick season" is on the horizon.

Each week, healthcare providers report the number of individuals presenting with a fever accompanied by either a cough or a sore throat. This figure, known as ILI (influenza-like illness), serves as an indicator of the nation's health "weather." Currently, the nationwide ILI rate is 2.8%, slightly below the 2.9% threshold that signals the onset of the respiratory season. However, the situation varies across regions, with the South and West surpassing the baseline at 3.3% each. Children are particularly affected.

When examining specific viruses, the landscape is as follows: Influenza is present. Nationally, approximately 9% of flu tests yield positive results, with hospitalization rates on the rise in every region except one. The West Coast and the South are experiencing the most severe activity, while the Northeast is starting to show signs of increase. Tragically, three children have died due to flu complications this season, a number that is expected to rise to around 200 by the end of the season.

COVID-19 remains in a state of uncertainty. Wastewater levels are moderate but staying relatively stable, which is unusual as they typically decline after the summer months before rising again in December or January. State-level data presents a mixed picture.