Klimaschutz: CO₂‑Emissionen aus fossilen Brennstoffen sinken leicht

The Global Carbon Project's 2026 report indicates that global CO₂ emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to slightly decrease, falling by 0.4% compared to the previous year to reach 38.2 billion tonnes of CO₂. This decline is primarily attributed to the rapid growth in renewable energy sources and a significant drop in oil consumption, likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.

The report, involving over 130 scientists, also predicts a decrease of 1.9% in oil combustion and 0.3% in gas combustion, while coal combustion is expected to increase by 0.6%. However, the growth in renewable energy is not fast enough to permanently reduce global CO₂ emissions from burning fossil fuels, coal, and gas. Lead researcher Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter stated that while a reduction in fossil fuel emissions is encouraging, a reduction linked to geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.

The international community had agreed at the Paris Climate Conference in 2015 to limit global warming to less than two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, later refining this to 1.5 degrees to keep potential climate change consequences manageable. Currently, the United Nations projects a temperature rise of 2.8 degrees by the end of the century.

Scientists therefore urge for accelerated measures against global warming. Overall global CO₂ emissions from changes in land use have decreased in the past decade but are expected to slightly increase this year due to wildfires or deforestation. The report also notes that forests and oceans, as natural carbon sinks, have bound 49% of anthropogenic emissions in the past ten years.

The scientists point out that climate change negatively impacts the storage capacity of these natural sinks. Afforestation between 2016 and 2025 has removed about two billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere, but deforestation emissions were nearly twice as much. Novel CO₂ extraction methods, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, currently play a minor role.

According to Julia Pongratz, a geographer at LMU Munich and a core team member of the report, "neither novel CO₂ extraction methods nor afforestation remove the equivalent of 30 minutes of global fossil CO₂ emissions in a whole year". Accelerating the reduction of fossil emissions and halting deforestation should remain top priorities, Pongratz emphasized, while expanding natural and novel CO₂ extraction capacities is necessary to balance unavoidable residual emissions and achieve greenhouse gas neutrality.