Elon Musk Just Gave the Top End of His SpaceX Revenue Forecast About a 2% Chance. His Best Guess Sits at the Bottom End.
Even the low end is five times this December's pace. How much of that is already in the stock?
Elon Musk has indicated a 2% chance that SpaceX's annual recurring revenue will reach $500 billion by December 2027, according to projections made at a recent earnings call. This is significantly lower than his best guess, which is $1 trillion. Despite the low odds, Musk also stated it is not out of the question. His current stock price is trading at around $140, which is slightly above its IPO price of $135 and approximately 38% below its 52-week high of $225.64.
SpaceX's revenue has been growing rapidly, with the third quarter seeing an increase of 87% sequentially to $14.6 billion. The company expects revenue to grow by about 70% in the fourth quarter, bringing it to roughly $25 billion. CFO Bret Johnsen, however, forecasted revenue to be between $33 billion and $37 billion for the first quarter of 2027, a significant increase from the midpoint.
To achieve a $500 billion revenue target, SpaceX would need to experience a growth rate of 45% to 50% in each of the remaining quarters of 2027. This would require the company to hit an average growth rate of over 50% in each quarter, putting significant pressure on its revenue growth.
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